Machines of Loving Grace
慈悲机器
How AI Could Transform the World for the Better
人工智能如何让世界变得更美好
I think and talk a lot about the risks of powerful AI. The company I'm the CEO of, Anthropic, does a lot of research on how to reduce these risks. Because of this, people sometimes draw the conclusion that I'm a pessimist or "doomer" who thinks AI will be mostly bad or dangerous. I don't think that at all. In fact, one of my main reasons for focusing on risks is that they're the only thing standing between us and what I see as a fundamentally positive future. I think that most people are underestimating just how radical the upside of AI could be, just as I think most people are underestimating how bad the risks could be.
我经常思考和谈论强大人工智能的风险。我担任首席执行官的公司 Anthropic 对如何降低这些风险进行了大量研究。正因为如此，人们有时会得出结论，认为我是一个悲观主义者或"末日论者"，认为人工智能主要是坏的或危险的。我根本不这么认为。事实上，我关注风险的主要原因之一是，风险是我们与我所看到的根本积极的未来之间的唯一障碍。 我认为大多数人都低估了人工智能可能带来的巨大好处，就像我认为大多数人都低估了风险可能带来的严重性一样 。
In this essay I try to sketch out what that upside might look like---what a world with powerful AI might look like if everything goes right. Of course no one can know the future with any certainty or precision, and the effects of powerful AI are likely to be even more unpredictable than past technological changes, so all of this is unavoidably going to consist of guesses. But I am aiming for at least educated and useful guesses, which capture the flavor of what will happen even if most details end up being wrong. I'm including lots of details mainly because I think a concrete vision does more to advance discussion than a highly hedged and abstract one.
在本文中，我试图勾勒出这种好处的轮廓------如果一切顺利 ，一个拥有强大人工智能的世界会是什么样子。当然，没有人能够确切或准确地知道未来，而强大人工智能的影响可能比过去的技术变革更加难以预测，因此，所有这些都不可避免地将由猜测组成。但我的目标是至少做出有根据的、有用的猜测，即使大多数细节最终都是错误的，这些猜测也能捕捉到将会发生什么。我之所以包含大量细节，主要是因为我认为具体的愿景比高度含糊和抽象的愿景更能推动讨论。
First, however, I wanted to briefly explain why I and Anthropic haven't talked that much about powerful AI's upsides, and why we'll probably continue, overall, to talk a lot about risks. In particular, I've made this choice out of a desire to:
不过，首先我想简单解释一下为什么我和 Anthropic 并没有过多谈论强大 AI 的优势，以及为什么我们总体上可能会继续谈论很多风险。具体来说，我做出这个选择是出于以下愿望：
Maximize leverage. The basic development of AI technology and many (not all) of its benefits seems inevitable (unless the risks derail everything) and is fundamentally driven by powerful market forces. On the other hand, the risks are not predetermined and our actions can greatly change their likelihood.
最大限度地发挥杠杆作用 。人工智能技术的基本发展及其许多（并非全部）好处似乎是不可避免的（除非风险破坏了一切），并且从根本上来说是由强大的市场力量驱动的。另一方面，风险并不是预先确定的，我们的行动可以极大地改变其发生的可能性。
Avoid perception of propaganda. AI companies talking about all the amazing benefits of AI can come off like propagandists, or as if they're attempting to distract from downsides. I also think that as a matter of principle it's bad for your soul to spend too much of your time "talking your book".
避免被误认为是宣传 。人工智能公司谈论人工智能的所有惊人好处，可能会让人觉得他们是在宣传，或者试图转移人们对其弊端的注意力。我还认为，从原则上讲，花太多时间"谈论自己的书"对你的灵魂是有害的。
Avoid grandiosity. I am often turned off by the way many AI risk public figures (not to mention AI company leaders) talk about the post-AGI world, as if it's their mission to single-handedly bring it about like a prophet leading their people to salvation. I think it's dangerous to view companies as unilaterally shaping the world, and dangerous to view practical technological goals in essentially religious terms.
避免夸大其词 。许多 AI 风险公众人物（更不用说 AI 公司领导人）谈论后 AGI 世界的方式常常让我感到反感，就好像他们的使命就是像先知一样带领他们的人民走向救赎，独自实现这一目标。我认为将公司视为单方面塑造世界是危险的，将实际技术目标视为宗教术语也是危险的。
Avoid "sci-fi" baggage. Although I think most people underestimate the upside of powerful AI, the small community of people who do discuss radical AI futures often does so in an excessively "sci-fi" tone (featuring e.g. uploaded minds, space exploration, or general cyberpunk vibes). I think this causes people to take the claims less seriously, and to imbue them with a sort of unreality. To be clear, the issue isn't whether the technologies described are possible or likely (the main essay discusses this in granular detail)---it's more that the "vibe" connotatively smuggles in a bunch of cultural baggage and unstated assumptions about what kind of future is desirable, how various societal issues will play out, etc. The result often ends up reading like a fantasy for a narrow subculture, while being off-putting to most people.
避免"科幻"包袱 。虽然我认为大多数人都低估了强大人工智能的优势，但确实讨论激进人工智能未来的少数人经常以过度"科幻"的语气进行讨论（例如，上传思维、太空探索或一般的赛博朋克氛围）。我认为这会导致人们不太认真对待这些说法，并给它们注入一种不现实的感觉。需要明确的是，问题不在于所描述的技术是否可能或可能（主要文章详细讨论了这一点）------而更多的是"氛围"隐含地夹杂了一堆文化包袱和未说明的假设，关于什么样的未来是理想的，各种社会问题将如何发展，等等。结果往往最终读起来像是狭隘亚文化的幻想，同时让大多数人感到反感。
Yet despite all of the concerns above, I really do think it's important to discuss what a good world with powerful AI could look like, while doing our best to avoid the above pitfalls. In fact I think it is critical to have a genuinely inspiring vision of the future, and not just a plan to fight fires. Many of the implications of powerful AI are adversarial or dangerous, but at the end of it all, there has to be something we're fighting for, some positive-sum outcome where everyone is better off, something to rally people to rise above their squabbles and confront the challenges ahead. Fear is one kind of motivator, but it's not enough: we need hope as well.
尽管存在上述种种担忧，但我确实认为，在尽力避免上述陷阱的同时，讨论一个拥有强大人工智能的美好世界会是什么样子是很重要的。事实上，我认为，拥有一个真正鼓舞人心的未来愿景至关重要，而不仅仅是一个救火计划。强大人工智能的许多影响都是对抗性的或危险的，但归根结底，我们必须为之奋斗，为每个人都过得更好的正和结果而奋斗，为团结人们超越争吵、迎接未来挑战而奋斗。恐惧是一种激励因素，但这还不够：我们还需要希望。
The list of positive applications of powerful AI is extremely long (and includes robotics, manufacturing, energy, and much more), but I'm going to focus on a small number of areas that seem to me to have the greatest potential to directly improve the quality of human life. The five categories I am most excited about are:
强大人工智能的积极应用领域非常多（包括机器人、制造业、能源等），但我将重点介绍少数几个领域，这些领域在我看来最有可能直接改善人类生活质量。我最感兴趣的五个类别是：
Biology and physical health
生物学和身体健康
Neuroscience and mental health
神经科学和心理健康
Economic development and poverty
经济发展与贫困
Peace and governance 和平与治理
Work and meaning 工作与意义
My predictions are going to be radical as judged by most standards (other than sci-fi "singularity" visions2), but I mean them earnestly and sincerely. Everything I'm saying could very easily be wrong (to repeat my point from above), but I've at least attempted to ground my views in a semi-analytical assessment of how much progress in various fields might speed up and what that might mean in practice. I am fortunate to have professional experience in both biology and neuroscience, and I am an informed amateur in the field of economic development, but I am sure I will get plenty of things wrong. One thing writing this essay has made me realize is that it would be valuable to bring together a group of domain experts (in biology, economics, international relations, and other areas) to write a much better and more informed version of what I've produced here. It's probably best to view my efforts here as a starting prompt for that group.
按照大多数标准（科幻"奇点"愿景 2 除外）来判断，我的预测都将是激进的，但我是真心实意地说这些预测。我所说的一切很可能都是错误的（重复我上面的观点），但我至少试图将我的观点建立在半分析性的评估之上，即各个领域的进步可能会加快多少以及这在实践中意味着什么。我很幸运在生物学和神经科学方面都有专业经验，而且我是经济发展领域的博学业余人士，但我肯定会犯很多错误。写这篇文章让我意识到，召集一群领域专家（生物学、经济学、国际关系和其他领域）来写一份比我这里写的内容更好、更有见识的版本将是很有价值的。最好把我在这里的努力视为这个小组的起点。